In previous years, there was zero chance one, yet alone two programs who didn’t make their Conference Championship Game would crack the College Football Playoff bracket.

Now with the expanded format however, the best teams can still fight for a National Title even if they have a slip-up or two.

That’s perfect for #9 Tennessee and # Ohio State. Both teams have been staples in the top-10 all year, despite their two losses. They’ll square off on Saturday, December 21^st in a First-Round playoff game, with the Buckeyes pegged as chalk in the latest college football odds.

Tennessee vs Ohio State Odds

Ohio State opened as 7.5-point favorites, in a contest with a total of 47.5. That’s currently where both the spread and total numbers sit, although as we get closer to kickoff, expect a flurry of Buckeyes action which could push the spread further in their favor.

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Kickoff for this playoff tilt is set for 8 pm ET at Ohio Stadium, in Columbus, OH, with ABC and ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

How Ohio State Can Overwhelm Tennessee

Ohio State was on track to face #1 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game until a loss to unranked Michigan in the regular season finale. The Buckeyes played well enough defensively to win, but mustered only 10 points on offense.

Senior QB Will Howard picked the wrong time to have his worst game of the year, completing only 58% of his throws, while turning the ball over twice. Howard exceeded all expectations through his first 11 games, and Ohio State backers will bank on his latest performance being an outlier.

The biggest problem was his inability to get the ball to star wideout Jeremiah Smith. The Big Ten Receiver saw only two targets after halftime against the Wolverines, after shattering the school receiving records for a freshman.

On the ground, Ohio State boasts a strong rushing attack, featuring Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. The duo combined for 1,556 rushing yards and 14 TD his season.

The Buckeyes finished sixth in points per drive this season, and ninth on offense per SP+. They were 3-1 versus top-20 ranked opponents in the SP+ rankings, winning each time by at least a touchdown.

@OhioStateFB's defense is in a league of their own this year

They rank 1st in FBS ranks in four different categories pic.twitter.com/OyiUEVaS0c

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 28, 2024

As good as the offense is, the defense is even better. They’re the number one unit per SP+, and the number one scoring defense. The Ohio State pass rush and coverage group are among the best in the country, and they’ll pose a daunting test for a Tennessee offense that struggles to generate big plays.

Can the Volunteers Keep it Close?

The Vols averages less than 12 yards per successful play, which ranks 115th in the nation. Unlike Ohio State, they don’t have elite wideouts, which forces them to methodically drive the length of the field without making mistakes.

That can be done against weak defenses, but not versus the Buckeyes. That should force Tennessee to lean on the run, but rush defense is also a strength for Ohio State. The Buckeyes allow just 2.9 yards per carry, and less than 100 rushing yards per contest.

On the other side of the ball, the Vols defense is one of the few in the country that can give Ohio State problems. Tennessee ranks fourth nationally in havoc rate, a metric that measures tackles for loss, passes defended and fumbles forced.

The Vols defense also grades out fourth overall per SP+, and fourth in points allowed at 13.9 per contest. Opponents are averaging only 282 yards of offense, while Jermod McCoy might be the answer to who’ll slow down Smith.

he picked this.@Jermodmccoy #GBO pic.twitter.com/GSYOBFTKpd

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) November 30, 2024

McCoy has four picks and eight pass breakups this season, while enemy QB’s have a dismal 13.2 QBR when targeting receivers in his coverage. Tennessee grades out top-17 in both pass rush and coverage per Pro Football Focus, and force nearly two turnovers per game.

Tennessee vs Ohio State Early Prediction

Now that the CFP is set, the Buckeyes have fallen to fourth in the National Championship odds, while the Vols are seventh. Both programs are exceptional defensively, and points will be at a premium.

In Tennessee’s three toughest roads games this season, they averaged 19 points. Their inability to produce explosive plays is concerning, as we can’t expect them to dink and dunk their way down the field successfully versus this Ohio State defense.

The Buckeyes offense is an imposing unit, but they’re not immune to struggling either. As mentioned, they produced only 10 points versus Michigan, and only 20 points against Penn State. Both those defenses rank below Tennessee’s, which should give pause to bettors expecting a massive offensive output.

• Tennessee vs Ohio State Early Pick: Under 47.5 (-110)

The post Tennessee vs Ohio State Betting Line, Early Prediction & Preview appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Before the season, most experts would have predicted a Week 14 Bengals (4-8) vs Cowboys (5-7) Monday Night Football showdown would be ripe with playoff implications. Instead, this is just a matchup between two teams already looking ahead to next year. Cincinnati and Dallas have been two of the most disappointing teams in the league so far. Online sportsbooks expect the Cowboys misery to continue, as they’ve pegged the Bengals as sizeable chalk in the latest football betting lines.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Odds

Cincinnati is currently favored by 5.5-points, after opening at -6. Bettors are all-in on the Bengals in this spot, as Joe Burrow and Co. are drawing 72% of the spread wagers and 87% of the handle. 

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Total-wise, the action is just as lopsided according to the NFL public betting percentages: 59% of the over/under tickets are backing over 49.5, which is accounting for 83% of the total money.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from AT&T Stadium, in Dallas, TX with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Expect Little Defense

Both of these teams have been cash cows for over bettors this season. Only Baltimore’s games have flown over the total more often than Cincy’s contests (75%), while 67% of the Cowboys games have also gone over.

We’ll get to how bad the Bengals defense is momentarily, but first let’s start with the matchup advantages their offense can exploit. Burrow enters Week 14 as the NFL’s leader in passing yards and touchdowns, while ranking fourth in passer rating. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in four straight starts, leading the Bengals to an average 35 points per game during that stretch.

"Joe Burrow should be MVP."@RSherman_25 speaking his mind pic.twitter.com/a091QijzPo

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 6, 2024

Ja’Marr Chase meanwhile, is having an incredible season that not enough people are talking about. Chase leads the league in receiving yards and touchdowns, scoring four more times than any other wideout. He’s hauled in six touchdowns in his last three contests, to go along with 24 catches.

Dallas rates out better versus the pass than the run, but Burrow has excelled no matter how difficult the matchup has been this season. On the off chance the Cowboys can slow down Burrow and Chase, running back Chase Brown might go nuclear.

Brown has at least 86 rushing yards or a touchdown in five straight starts. Dallas’ run D allows the fifth most yards per carry, and the sixth most overall production to enemy backs.

As good as Cincy’s offense is, it hasn’t been good enough to overcome a porous defense. The Bengals have allowed at least 35 points in four of five games. They’ve lost four times in 2024 when scoring at least 33 points, and are fresh off being humiliated by Russell Wilson and the Steelers.

Russ cooked them for 414 passing yards, including over 250 yards after the catch. Cincinnati grades out bottom-10 in tackling for the season, and bottom-5 in both pass rush and coverage per Pro Football Focus.

Bengals vs Cowboys Prediction

That’s music to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys offense ears. After weeks of dismal offensive performances, with both Dak Prescott and Rush under center, the latter has righted the ship. Dallas is averaging over 30 points per game in their last two outings, and Rush is a big reason for it.

He’s completed 66% of his throws for 442 yards and 3 TD. Most importantly however, he hasn’t committed a turnover. A competent passing game has paved the way for some rushing success as well, which has sorely been lacking. Rico Dowdle has ripped off nearly 200 yards over the past two outings, finding the end zone last week versus Giants.

The #Bengals defense has given up 34+ points in a game SIX times this season pic.twitter.com/EJv3n1A9qP

— Jacob Matthew (@JakeMatthewList) December 4, 2024

You could argue that big outputs versus the Commanders and Giants, Dallas’ last two opponents, is nothing to brag about, but both grade out significantly better than this Bengals defense. You have to go all the way back to Week 7 to find an opponent that hasn’t scored at least 24 points against them, and we shouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys fly over that number on Monday.

Bengals vs Cowboys Pick: Over 49.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The post Bengals vs Cowboys Odds, Picks and Prediction for Monday Night Football (Week 14) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A spot in the College Football Playoff is on the line Saturday, as #17 Clemson (9-3, 7-1 ACC) takes on #8 SMU (11-0, 8-0 ACC) in the ACC Championship Game. There’s an outside shot both teams could be among the final 12 standing even if the Tigers win, but the Mustangs can’t afford to take that chance.

SMU ran through their ACC schedule undefeated, and online sportsbooks are expecting yet another win based on the latest College Football odds.

Clemson vs SMU Odds

The Mustangs are currently favored by 2.5-points, in a contest with a total of 55.5. This line touched -3 briefly, before sharp money drove it back down, and it appears professionals still like the Clemson side at +2.5.

Per the College Football public betting trends, the Tigers are drawing 52% of the spread handle, but only 40% of the wagers. Typically, when handle outweighs the tickets by a significant margin it’s a product of sharp action, and it’s not hard to see why the pros are leaning Clemson.

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Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm ET at Bank of America Stadium, in Charlotte, NC, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 6 at 1:00 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any College Football matchup this week.

The Case for Clemson

For starters, while this is supposed to be a neutral site game, it’s essentially in the Tigers backyard. Charlotte is two hours away from the Clemson campus, compared to over 1000 miles away from SMU. The crowd will be littered with rowdy Tigers fans, turning this contest into a defacto Clemson home game.

Next, is the experience factor. This is the Tigers 10th Conference Championship Game since 2008, and seventh since 2015. They’re 8-1 straight up in those contests, winning eight in a row.

This will be only the second time they’re an underdog in the championship contest, with the previous time coming in 2011. That year they faced Virginia Tech as 7-point ‘dogs, and won outright 38-10.

As for the product on the field this year, Clemson has advantages on both sides. On defense, the Tigers enter play ranked 20th per SP+. They’re 12th in turnovers forced and 21st in INT rate. That spells trouble for SMU, who has a major giveaway problem.

The Mustangs rank 80th in turnover percentage and 53rd in INT rate. After starting the season with just one interception in his first six appearances, Kevin Jennings has thrown six picks in his last six starts.

Offensively, Clemson brings a balanced attack to the table, led by QB Cade Klubnik. The preseason Heisman Trophy odds candidate had a career-high 29 TD passes this season, while adding nearly 300 yards on designed runs.

Cade Klubnik this year

2761 Passing yards
251 PYG
29 Passing TD’s
4 INT
5 Rushing TD’s

2026 QB1. pic.twitter.com/8Mlw47xCQW

— Lando Scott (@LandosHotTakes) November 30, 2024

Klubnik, the MVP of the 2022 ACC Champion team, has double the amount of big time throws compared to turnover worthy plays. That poses problems for an SMU secondary that ranks 48th in defending contested catches.

Clemson vs SMU Prediction

That’s not to say there aren’t things to like about SMU. The Mustangs have scored at least 33 points in eight of their past nine games.

As good as the Clemson defense is, they are prone to giving up big plays. The Tigers rank 117th in yards allowed on successful plays, meaning when they do give up yards its in bunches. SMU’s has plenty of explosive elements to it, gaining 20-plus yards on over 8% of their snaps.

Both teams are likely to find some success on offense, which explains the high total. However, when you factor in SMU’s turnover woes, Clemson’s defacto home field advantage and their experience, the Tigers are the side to play.

Everybody wants Clemson to win now to just keep bama out… pic.twitter.com/KQ9Xg2GdmV

— PePe (@CLEMSONPEPE) December 4, 2024

Also working in Clemson’s favor is a slew of positive trends. They’re 7-2 against the spread in Conference Championship Games, winning each of their last four appearances by at least 29 points.

They’ve played 33 games at a neutral site under Dabo Swinney, winning 21 of them and covering in 20. As underdogs at a neutral site, they’re 9-3 ATS, covering the number by 11.8 points per game.

• Clemson vs SMU Pick: Clemson +2.5 (-110)

The post Clemson vs SMU Prediction, Odds & Best Bets – ACC Championship Game 2024 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Tulane’s longshot playoff dreams may have been crushed last week, but they can still salvage a very successful season by claiming the AAC title. The Green Wave (9-3, 7-1 AAC) visit #23 Army (10-1, 8-0 AAC) in the Conference Championship Game on Friday, and oddsmakers have pegged them as chalk in the latest College Football odds.

Tulane vs Army Odds

Tulane is favored by 5 points, in a contest with a total of 45.5. The Green Wave are currently drawing 56% of the spread tickets and 62% of the handle, something we vehemently disagree with – more on that later.

Total-wise, early under money had driven this number down 3 points according to the College Football public betting trends. That move appears to be too much, however, as 80% of the over/under tickets and 61% of the total money are now on over 45.5.

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Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm ET at Michie Stadium, in West Point, NY, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 6 at 5:00 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any College Football matchup this week.

Why Tulane is Overrated

Prior to the Green Wave’s latest loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving Week, there was a slim chance they’d be one of the final 12 contenders in the College Football Playoff odds. It didn’t take long for the Tigers to prove Tulane wasn’t ready for the signature stage, as they waxed them 34-24.

Memphis ran all over Tulane for 236 yards and two scores, a troubling fact given Army is on deck. What’s even more concerning, though, is the Green Wave’s struggles versus quality opponents. Tulane has faced four teams ranked inside the top-50 per SP+, losing three times by at least seven points.

Memphis sends Tulane to the gulag

And the MWC Title Game might just be a CFB Playoff play-in game pic.twitter.com/zqvC9Yj7tc

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 29, 2024

On the flip side, their nine wins have come against vastly inferior programs. They beat an FCS school, as well as eight FBS opponents. Those eight FBS teams had an average ranking north of 90 per SP+, with only Louisiana ranked inside the top-65.

That’s not to say there’s nothing to like about the Green Wave. Their offense ranks top-30 in points and yards per game, as well as third down conversion rate. They rank 10th in red zone success rate, and only three teams average more yards per pass. The problem is, the Black Knights can absolutely expose them on the other side of the ball.

Run Army Run

The common theme in each of Tulane’s losses is that they’ve been gashed by the run. They’re yielding an average of over 200 rushing yards in each defeat, along with two touchdowns. No team runs the ball more often than Army, and few teams are as successful on the ground.

The Black Knights rank top-five in the country in rushing success rate, line yards, quality drives and stuff rate. They rush the ball on over 85% of their offensive snaps, while the three-headed monster of QB Bryson Daily, along with running backs Kanye Udoh and Noah Short, are averaging over 6.0 yards per carry.

BRYSON. DAILY.

HIS 25TH RUSHING TOUCHDOWN OF THE SEASON

That ties The American single season record#AmericanWay x @ArmyWP_Football pic.twitter.com/J5CPrn4o5r

— The American (@American_Conf) November 30, 2024

Not surprisingly, as a result, Army leads the nation in time of possession and are excellent on money downs. The Black Knights are top-five in third-down conversion rate, and have been successful on 75% of their fourth-down tries.

Memphis dominated TOP last week against Tulane, keeping the Green Wave off the field. That created a sense of urgency on Tulane’s part, which led to multiple bad decisions resulting in turnovers.

It’s not hard to envision a similar game script on Friday night, in front of a raucous Army home crowd. The Black Knights won double-digit games for the first time since 2018 this season, and are one win away from their first conference title.

Tulane vs Army Prediction

Given that early money has moved the line in Tulane’s favor, there’s no rush to bet Army right now. We could get a better number closer to kickoff, but even if the line drifts back down towards them, there’s still value on the Black Knights at anything beyond a field goal.

Not that you need another reason to back Army, but if you do consider the following: Tulane has to travel over 1,300 miles for this contest. The temperatures also project to be around freezing, which simply isn’t something a team from New Orleans will be accustom to. Advantage Army.

• Tulane vs Army Pick: Army +5 (-110)

The post Tulane vs Army Odds, Spread & Prediction – AAC Championship Game appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The #5 Georgia Bulldogs and #2 Texas Longhorns both appear to be playoff bound, but first they must decide the SEC Championship, which will grant the winner a first-round bye in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.

The Bulldogs trounced the Longhorns in this same matchup a month and a half ago, but online sportsbooks aren’t expecting a repeat performance in the latest college football odds.

Georgia vs Texas Odds

Texas opened as -1.5-point favorites, before quickly getting bet up to -2.5. Some books even moved to -3, but that triggered an immediate buy back, pushing the number back down below a field goal. Total-wise, the number is also on the way down per the college football public betting splits. The over/under opened at 50.5, but now sits at 49.

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Kickoff for the SEC Championship Game is set for 4 pm ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, GA, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Why the Longhorns Love

The Longhorns didn’t play a perfect game last week in their 17-7 win over Texas A&M, but there’s still plenty to like about them in this matchup.

Let’s start with their defense. They held the Aggies scoreless, with A&M’s only points coming via a pick-six. The Longhorns D completely neutralized Marcel Reed and Co., limiting them to just 248 yards. Strong defense is nothing new to Texas, as few teams are as strong on that side of the ball – as we’ll discuss.

TEXAS. GEORGIA.

ROUND 2 IN THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP pic.twitter.com/grgXjiXUFI

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) December 1, 2024

Offensively, the results weren’t pretty, but there are positives to take away. While Quinn Ewers struggled through his ankle injury, the ground game came alive. Quintrevion Wisner rushed for 186 yards in the victory, a week after pounding the rock for 156 yards against a very good Kentucky team.

Stopping the run is a major flaw in the Georgia defense at the moment, and with Ewers operating at less than 100%, expect Texas to run the ball relentlessly.

Why Texas Matches Up Well vs Georgia

That’s been the game plan against the Bulldogs for multiple weeks and it’s been an effective one. Gone are the days when Georgia could suffocate its opponent. These days they’re trending towards the bottom of the conference on D, and are having trouble just getting stops.

The Bulldogs rank ninth in the SEC in yards allowed and run defense, and seventh in scoring D. They allowed 226 rushing yards two weeks ago versus UMass, and then 260 yards on the ground to Georgia Tech.

Georgia SEC Defensive Ranks

The Yellow Jackets put up 42 points against them in an eight overtime thriller, marching up and down the field at will.

On the bright side, the Georgia offense is looking as good as ever, with Carson Beck living up to his preseason hype. Beck has strung together three straight impressive starts, posting an 11-to-0 TD-to-INT rate, en route to a trio of victories. He’s led Georgia to an average of 45 points per outing during that stretch, posting a passer rating north of 150.0 in each contest.

The problem for the Bulldogs in this matchup, is you cannot throw on Texas. Only Ohio State allows fewer points and yards per game, and no program is better against the pass.

Georgia vs Texas Early Prediction

Given how much Georgia loves to air it out, and the perceived advantage for the Longhorns on the ground, you can’t argue with the line moving towards Texas.

Casual bettors will look back to the Bulldogs based on their earlier win in this matchup, but that’s a mistake. The Longhorns turned the ball over a season-high four times, gifting Georgia short fields, which they capitalized on. The Bulldogs aren’t likely to be so fortunate this time around, and will have to grind for every point.

Texas held Beck to just passing 173 yards and 4.3 yards per attempt in their first meeting, and while that sounds like an outlier, that’s right in line with their season long stats.

Sharp money bumped the line in the Longhorns favor early on and that looks like the right side to play as long as the number stays short of a field goal.

• Georgia vs Texas Early Pick: Texas -2.5 (-110)

The post Georgia vs Texas Early Prediction, Odds & Spread – SEC Championship appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Bo Nix and the surprising Broncos continue their playoff push on Monday Night Football as they welcome the Browns to Denver. The Broncos are fresh off back-to-back double-digit victories and online sportsbooks are expecting a third straight victory per the latest football betting lines.

Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos Odds

Denver is currently favored by 6 points, in a contest with a total of 42. Bettors are flocking to the window to buy the Broncos, placing 71% of the spread wagers on them which accounts for 85% of the ATS handle. 

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Total-wise, the action is even more lopsided according to the NFL public betting percentages. 82% of the over/under wagers are on over 42, as well as 87% of the total money.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from Empower Field at Mile High, in Denver, CO with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Bo Knows Ball

Denver enters Week 13 in a playoff position, occupying the AFC’s seventh seed. Few people would have predicted that at the start of the season, as their projection was just 5.5 victories in the NFL win total odds.

Having an offensive genius as a head coach helps, but Bo Nix is just as much responsible for the Broncos’ current standing. He’s arguably playing the best football of any rookie at the moment, trailing Jayden Daniels by a slim margin in the Offensive ROY odds.

Nix has thrown 11 TD passes over his last five games, and has the NFL’s eighth best QBR over that stretch. He threw for 273 yards and two scores last week in a win over the Raiders, which followed a 307-yard, 4 TD outing in a blowout of the Falcons.

Bo Nix is ASCENDING pic.twitter.com/fiU4wxpSdg

— NFL on CBS (@NFLonCBS) November 25, 2024

The Denver run game has been underwhelming, grading out 28th, putting even more pressure on Nix’s shoulders. That won’t change against the Browns, and the matchup should yield success for the rookie if he’s given enough time to throw.

Cleveland’s surrendered the 12th most production to enemy quarterbacks, but still possess elite pieces on defense. Myles Garrett is a DPOY candidate yet again, and is fresh off a three sack performance versus the Steelers.

In the secondary, Denzel Ward leads the league with 17 passes defended, and he’ll be charged with covering a red-hot Courtland Suton. The latter leads the Broncos in most receiving categories, and has 36 catches and 467 yards over his past five games.

Can Cleveland Play Spoiler?

The Browns offense meanwhile, has looked infinitely better since Deshaun Watson went down. Jameis Winston has led them to a pair of upset victories, and is averaging 295 passing yards over his four starts.

The fear with Jameis is always that he’ll commit a back-breaking turnover, and that’s reared its ugly head already this season. Winston has been picked off four times in his last three starts and has committed eight turnover worthy plays. He’s also absorbed 10 sacks over that stretch and now faces an elite Broncos defense.

Denver grades out third in pass rush productivity per Pro Football Focus and fifth in coverage. They’re also top-10 against the run, meaning Nick Chubb and his 3.1 yards per carry average is also in trouble.

Former Bronco Jerry Jeudy has been Winston’s favorite target with 379 yards over the last month, but he faces just about the toughest matchup a wideout can get.

Patrick Surtain will spend most of the snaps on him, and he’s erased opposing receivers this season. Surtain has allowed just 187 yards in coverage, the second fewest among DB’s with at least 200 logged snaps.

Browns vs Broncos Prediction

As scary as Garrett can be as a rusher, bettors should trust that Sean Payton will put Nix in a position to succeed. He’s upped the tempo to slow down enemy rushers, allowing Nix to throw plenty of quick hitters, which is what he does best.

Bo Nix is THE guy

Defense is LEGIT

J.J. Watt: Free agents will WANT to sign with the Broncos

“The Denver Broncos are the REAL DEAL”

About as high of praise as you can get pic.twitter.com/O9yIUrM8rQ

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) November 27, 2024

We can count on a turnover or two from Winston, plus lots of pressure from the Denver D. Cleveland will be missing starting left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr, while the Broncos pass rush has its most sacks through 12 games (44) since 1986.

Historical trends also favor Denver, as they’ve beaten Cleveland 11 straight times during the regular season. The Browns are 1-7 in their last eight trips to Mile High, while the Broncos are an NFL best 9-3 against the spread in 2024.

Browns vs Broncos Pick: Broncos -6 (-110) at BetMGM

The post Browns vs Broncos Odds, Picks and Prediction for Monday Night Football (Week 13) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, and no game has higher stakes than #3 Texas (10-1, 6-1 SEC) versus #20 Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2 SEC).

Saturday will mark the first meeting between the in-state rivals since 2011, and oddsmakers are bullish on the Longhorns in the latest College Football odds.

Texas vs Texas A&M Odds

Texas is currently favored by 5.5 points, in a contest with a total of 48.5. As of Friday, the spread tickets are fairly evenly split, with the Longhorns drawing 59% of the wagers but just 39% of the handle.

Total-wise, bettors are all-in on the over according to the College Football public betting trends. Over 48.5 is garnering 70% of the tickets, pushing some books to move the line a point higher.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, with ABC and ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

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Odds as of November 29 at 2:00 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any Week 14 College Football matchup.

A Lot at Stake

The winner of this heavyweight tilt will book a spot in the SEC Championship Game next week versus Georgia. If Texas falls, they’ll likely still be one of the final 12 in the College Football Playoff odds, but the same cannot be said about A&M.

The Aggies only chance to keep their Playoff hopes alive is by beating the Longhorns. Should they do that and then topple the Bulldogs next week, they’d lock up the No. 2 seed and a First Round bye. Beat the Longhorns, but then lose to Georgia, and A&M will also be left on the outside looking in.

How Bad is Ewers Ankle Injury

One of the other big headlines heading into this matchup is the health of Texas starting QB Quinn Ewers. The Junior suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over Kentucky, but managed to finish the game.

Ewers’ ankle is reportedly quite tender and he’s receiving extra treatment in hopes of playing Saturday. He took first team reps on Tuesday and Wednesday but was reportedly limited. If he does suit up, his mobility likely won’t be great, which is a major red flag for Longhorns backers.

So Apparently Quinn Isn’t Progressing As Much As We’d Like… pic.twitter.com/jJDTRzq4nb

— Barstool Longhorn (@UTBarstool) November 29, 2024

A healthy Ewers was pressured on 39% of his dropbacks in Texas’ only loss to the Bulldogs. He completed only 38% of his throws under duress for 87 yards. Texas A&M grades out 24th in pass rush productivity per Pro Football Focus, 19 spots higher than the Bulldogs.

The Blue Print for Beating Texas

The Aggies can absolutely replicate Georgia’s strategy and make Ewers’ life miserable. A&M has racked up 194 pressures through 11 games, with future Sunday rushers Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart leading the way.

If they can dial up substantial pressure, they’ll disrupt the the Longhorns offense. That will not only keep the game close, but put the Aggies in line for a potential upset.

On the other side of the ball, you can forget trying to attack Texas’ number on pass defense. A&M would be wise to lean on the ground game, controlling the clock and limiting how many possessions the Longhorns get.

Marcel Reed Rushing Stats – Last 4 Games

Aggies QB Marcel Reed is a true dual-threat option, something Texas doesn’t have much experience dealing with this season. He’s rushed for 4 TD and over 200 yards over his last four starts, and his legs will be counted on for another big effort.

Texas vs Texas A&M Prediction

Without throwing too much shade at Texas, this is a program that’s beaten two teams who currently boast a winning record. They’ve faced one team currently ranked inside the top-25, and lost by two touchdowns.

The Longhorns have also been dreadful against the spread. They’re covered in only two SEC games this season. Yes, the advanced metrics love them, but that’s in large part due to their hyper-efficiency versus inferior competition. They won’t look nearly as good against a team in their own weight class.

A&M, meanwhile, beat a ranked Missouri team and an LSU squad just on the outside looking in. Those wins were by a combined 46 points, and both games were also at home in College Station.

• Texas vs Texas A&M Pick: Texas A&M +5.5 (-110)

The post Texas vs Texas A&M Odds, Spread & Prediction – Week 14 SEC Showdown appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, with a bevy of contests kicking off on Black Friday. Three top-25 teams are in action, including #7 Georgia and #25 Colorado, with plenty of big names available to target in the college football player props market.

Shadeur Sanders, Ashton Jeanty and Carson Beck headline the list, so check out the table below for the latest passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown lines, plus our two favorite bets.

College Football Black Friday Player Props

Odds as of November 28th at Noon ET at FanDuel. Browse our top sports betting apps for CFB player props.

Anthony Hankerson RushingYards

Back to running backs for our first pick, which is under 80.5 rushing yards for Anthony Hankerson. Oregon State is a massive 19-point underdog versus Boise State, meaning the Beavers will almost surely be passing more in catchup mode.

Hankerson has plenty of big games on his resume this season, but only one has come when trailing by 8 points or more. He averages just 61 rushing yards per contest in those situations, and the matchup versus the Broncos’ defense is not a favorable one.

Boise State’s D ranks 20th in expected points added per run, versus 84th per drop back. They’re limiting enemy run games to the ninth fewest yards in the nation, and just 3.2 yards per carry.

• Props Picks: Anthony Hankerson Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Shadeur Sanders Passing Yards

For our second selection, we’re targeting the under on Sanders’ passing yards against Oklahoma State. Everything points to a massive game from the future NFL starter, but clearing 337.5 passing yards is a bit too much to ask.

SHEDEUR SANDERS TO TRAVIS HUNTER FOR THE TD

HUNTER HIT THE HEISMAN

(via @CFBONFOX)
pic.twitter.com/wro0IOufjU

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 23, 2024

Yes, the Cowboys’ pass defense is an abomination. They yield the second most passing yards in the Big 12, while their pass rush has one of the lowest sack percentages in the country.

Sanders should be able to feast on Black Friday, but the projected game script won’t allow him to rack up this many yards. Colorado is a 16.5-point favorite, and should be able to build a big lead quickly, reducing the need for Sanders to push the ball downfield.

As bad as the Oklahoma State pass defense is, they’re even worse against the run. They’re allowing the most rushing yards (231.5) and rushing TD (2.5) per game in the conference.

Sanders has only cleared this number four times in 2024, and all but one of those performances came in tight, one-score games. He also threw the ball 40+ times in three of those outings, an attempts number he won’t come close to in this matchup.

• Props Picks: Shadeur Sanders Under 337.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

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The Dolphins versus Packers Thanksgiving Day showdown is not only the most compelling matchup on the three-game slate, but it’s also likely to draw the most action. Bettors will be eager to either press their winnings or chase their losses from earlier in the day, and there’s no shortage of markets to wager on. By Thursday, the spread and total markets show little value, but the same cannot be said for the NFL player props. Names like Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Tyreek Hill, Josh Jacobs and De’Von Achane will be popular targets to bet on, and we’ve zeroed in on a pair of Achane wagers to headline our Dolphins vs Packers player props card.

Dolphins vs Packers Player Props

Achane currently projects for four less carries than Jacobs, a gap we don’t think is wide enough. The second year back is not a workhorse type like his counterpart, and cedes multiple carries to Raheem Mostert every outing.

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Dolphins vs Packers Prop #1: Devon Achane Rush Attempts and Receptions

There are multiple outs for the under on Achane’s rush attempts to cash. For starters, Miami is a 3.5-point ‘dog in the NFL odds, which suggests a trailing game script. Typically, that means more passing volume, eating into Achane’s work load.

Second, Achane has lacked efficiency this season, averaging almost half as many yards per attempt as last year (4.3 vs 7.8). He’s been far more effective as a pass catcher, averaging 7.3 yards per reception, and the Dolphins would be wise to use him more in that role in this matchup.

Devon Achane Rushing Stats – Last 4 Games

Green Bay has allowed the ninth most receiving yards to enemy backs, and there are few players more dangerous in space than Achane. The Packers run defense on the other hand is trending up, after completely shutting down Christian McCaffrey in Week 12.

Achane has handled 13+ carries in only three of 11 games so far, and this is not the spot to expect him to do so again.

• Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Devon Achane Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-135); risk 1 unit, Over 4.5 Receptions (+115); risk 1 unit

Dolphins vs Packers Prop #2: Jordan Love Rush Attempts

Sticking in the rush attempts market, we’re looking to bet under 2.5 carries for Love. The Packers need improved play from their QB to boost their stock in the Super Bowl odds, but they’ll be leaning on his arm rather than his legs to do so.

Love clearly isn’t healthy after suffering both knee and groin issues already this season, and his willingness to scramble has decreased. He’s rushed 3 or more times in only three games this season, and all three opponents were top-10 in pressure rate. Miami on the other hand, generates pressure at a bottom-7 rate.

• Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Jordan Love Under 2.5 Rush Attempts (-115); risk 1 unit

Dolphins vs Packers Touchdown Scorer Props

Shifting to touchdown props, where we can’t pass up the value on Jonnu Smith’s anytime TD odds. He’s +190 to find the end zone, something he’s done three times in the last two weeks.

Smith leads Miami in targets since Week 5, and the matchup is elite. Green Bay’s linebackers are a liability in coverage, allowing the sixth most production to enemy tight ends.

• Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Jonnu Smith Anytime TD (+190); risk 1 unit

The post Dolphins vs Packers Player Props – Best Bets for Thanksgiving Day appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The second game of Thursday’s NFL Thanksgiving tripleheader pits the 2-9 New York Giants versus the 4-7 Dallas Cowboys. Two of the most disappointing teams of the 2024 season, and each enters this contests riding ugly streaks. New York has dropped six straight overall, while the Cowboys have lost all five of their home games to date. Dallas did break its five-game losing streak last week in Washington, and online sportsbooks are expecting another victory per the latest football betting lines.

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys Odds

The Cowboys are currently favored by 3.5 points after opening as 4-point favorites. At the current number the spread action is completely one-sided, with Dallas drawing 78% of the wagers and 91% of the handle. Total-wise, a low scoring game is on deck. The over/under opened at 38.5, and has already been bet down to 37.5 according to the NFL public betting percentages. That makes it the lowest total of the Week 13 slate, and the only over/under below 40. 

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Kickoff for this NFC East rivalry game is set for 4:30 pm ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.

Home Not So Sweet for Cowboys

The Cowboys love on the spread is more of a fade of the Giants, rather than a confident backing of Dallas. Mike McCarthy’s team has been downright awful this season, and are one loss away from locking up the under on their NFL win total odds. They’ve been especially bad at home, where they haven’t won since December 30^th of last year.

As mentioned, they’ve dropped all five home contests so far, getting outscored 187 to 69. If you include last January’s home playoff loss to Green Bay, the Cowboys have been outscored 235 to 101 in their last six outings at Jerry’s World, which nets out to a -22 point differential per game.

Tom Brady finding out he has to give up his Thanksgiving to watch the Giants @ Cowboys. pic.twitter.com/CS6Ifii8gq

— William Johnson (@Blaydez_Cardz) November 25, 2024

Sure, it doesn’t help that Dak Prescott is on IR, but only two of those losses were started by backup Cooper Rush. Speaking of Rush, he popped up on the injury report early this week with a knee issue, but is expected to play.

Rush had arguably the best game of his NFL career last Sunday, throwing for 247 yards and 2 TD, in the win over the Commanders. He showed excellent command of the offense, effectively getting the ball into Dallas’ best playmakers.

Defensively, the Cowboys did an exceptional job shutting down Jayden Daniels until the final few minutes, forcing three turnovers along they way. That side of the ball is looking more promising by the day, as their top corner is likely set to return. Trevon Diggs is back at practice this week and is trending towards playing versus the G-Men.

Tommy Boy

Diggs should see plenty of stud rookie wideout Malik Nabers, one of the lone bright spots on New York’s roster. Nabers leads the team in every significant receiving category, but has been very critical of the Giants play calling and decision making.

New York cut Daniel Jones, and instead of turning to backup Drew Lock, they opted for Tommy DeVito instead. DeVito didn’t provide much of a spark in the Giants 30-7 Week 12 loss to Tampa Bay, absorbing a ton of hard hits instead.

That beating landed him on the injury report, and now there’s talk he may not be healthy enough to start versus Dallas. If DeVito can’t go, Lock would make his first start as a Giant, but expectations should be kept low.

This is a team that ranks last in scoring, and 24^th in total offense. They haven’t cleared 22 points since Week 5, and have been outscored 109 to 32 in their last three meetings with the Cowboys.

Giants vs Cowboys 2024 Offensive Ranks

New York is especially bad along the offensive line, which is music to the ears of Micah Parson and the rest of the Dallas pass rushers. DeVito absorbed four sacks last week, and was pressured on 17 of his 39 drop backs.

Parsons and Co. got to Daniels four times themselves last week, racking up 14 pressures along the way. If you’re thinking the Giants would be better off to attack the Cowboys rush defense, that didn’t exactly work out in their previous meeting.

Giants vs Cowboys Prediction

Dallas held New York to 26 rushing yards on 24 attempts back in their Week 5 win. The Cowboys limited Washington running backs to 2.9 yards per carry last week, which should give bettors confidence they can handle Tyrone Tracy and an aging Devin Singletary.

This game profiles as an excellent under candidate, but rather than playing the game total, let’s target New York’s team total instead. They’re one of the worst offenses in football and whether it’s DeVito or Lock under center, they’ll struggle to move the ball.

The Giants team total currently sits at 16.5, a number they’ve failed to clear in back-to-back games, and six times overall this season.

• Giants vs Cowboys Pick: Giants Under 16.5 Points (-104)

The post Giants vs Cowboys Odds, Spread & Prediction for Thanksgiving appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) is peaking at exactly the right time. The #2 Buckeyes have beaten two top-5 teams in the last month, and bring a five-game winning streak into Saturday’s regular season finale with rival Michigan.

Online sportsbooks don’t expect much resistance from the Wolverines, despite their recent dominance over OSU. The Buckeyes are sizeable home chalk in the latest college football odds, as they look to beat Michigan for the first time in four tries.

Michigan vs Ohio State Odds

Ohio State opened as 20.5-point favorites, and that’s exactly where the line sits at most shops. The early betting action favors the underdog, as Michigan is drawing 69% of the tickets and 78% of the money to cover the spread.

Total-wise, bettors are expecting a low-scoring affair. Per the college football public betting splits, the over/under opened at 44.5, but has been bet down a point. The action looks to be the result of sharp money, as the under is garnering 44% of the handle off just 18% of the wagers.

Odds as of November 26 (12 pm ET) at Caesars Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before betting on NCAAF Week 14.

Kickoff for this Big Ten showdown is set for Noon ET at Ohio Stadium, in Columbus, OH, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.

Buckeyes Out for Blood

The spread for Saturday’s contest is the largest in this rivalry since 2014 when OSU was laying 21 points. They failed to cover on that day, beating the Wolverines 42-28. The Buckeyes went on to win the Big Ten that season, but fell short of the BCS Championship Game.

This year, the Buckeyes are not only a virtual lock to make the College Football Playoff, they’re also the favorites in the National Championship odds. They’re a win away from a spot in the Big Ten title game and a likely rematch with #1 Oregon. The Ducks are the only blemish on OSU’s resume, and the Buckeyes look poised for revenge.

Speaking of revenge, that’s exactly what Ohio State is seeking on Saturday. They’ve been blown out in two of their past three meetings with Michigan, but this year the tables will be turned.

The Greatest Rivalry in all of Sport

SWING, SWING , SWING pic.twitter.com/4hrYsKpgex

— Official Ohio State DG (@DylanEveryday) November 26, 2024

Top to bottom, the Buckeyes are the best team in college football. They’re one of only two teams to boast top-5 SP+ rankings on both sides of the ball, and they own the nation’s number one defense. OSU is allowing the fewest points (10.7) and yards (241) per game, and has turned up the pressure on opposing QB’s lately.

Since their loss to Oregon in early October, Ohio State has been blitzing on 35% of opponent drop backs. They’ve racked up a sack on 11% of those snaps, bringing down Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke five times last week. Just how good was the OSU defense versus #5 Indiana in Week 13? They held Rourke to a 44% completion rate and just 68 yards on 18 throws.

On the other side of the ball, the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are averaging 5.2 yards per carry, while Will Howard is playing flawlessly under center. Howard threw three touchdowns in last week’s victory versus the Hoosiers to raise his QBR to 85.4. That ranks fourth nationally, while the Buckeyes offense is now up to sixth in EPA/play.

Wolverines Lack Bite

For Michigan, what a difference a year makes. After completing a perfect season en route to the National Championship, the Wolverines lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, as well as 15+ impactful starters. This season, they’re an underwhelming 5-5 under new coach Sherrone Moore, dropping four of their past six. The defense is still strong, ranking top-25 in points allowed, but the offense has taken a huge step back.

Michigan ranks outside the top-95 in both points and yards per game. They’ve scored 17 or less in each of their past four losses, while Davis Warren is one of three QB’s to start a game. Warren may be the most experienced of the bunch, but his numbers are pedestrian. He’s thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6), while averaging only 5.9 yards per completion.

Michigan QB Davis Warren: “We’re not going to win this game by being emotional. … Being emotionally unstable, that’s a good way to lose this game”

Says confidence, following assignments and “letting it rip” are the keys for the offense

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) November 25, 2024

Expectations should be kept low versus this ferocious OSU defense, making running back Kalel Mullings Michigan’s best avenue for success. Mullings is fresh off a 3 TD game versus Northwestern, and averages 5.4 yards per carry.

Michigan vs Ohio State Early Prediction

While a run heavy approach is likely for the Wolverines, Ohio State might lean that way as well, even more so than usual. The Buckeyes already pound the rock on 54% of their plays, and Saturday’s weather could force them into more running.

Kickoff temperatures are expected to be in the high teens, with winds gusting around 20 mph. Sustained winds of 15+ mph have been shown to drastically affect passing efficiency, while increased rushing bleeds clock.

Sharp money is already on the under, and the combination of two good defenses, and possible nasty conditions could see the line drop even further. Follow the professionals, and bet the under.

• Michigan vs Ohio State Early Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)

The post Michigan vs Ohio State Odds, Early Prediction & Pick 2024 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

AFC Playoff contenders collide on Monday Night Football as the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) visit the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3). These two teams occupy the AFC’s fifth and sixth seeds, respectively, and oddsmakers are expecting a tightly contested affair in the latest football betting lines.

Baltimore Ravens vs LA Chargers Odds

Baltimore opened as three-point favorites but that line is now down to -2.5. At the current number, the Ravens are garnering the bulk of the support, drawing 66% of the tickets and 57% of the handle. 

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Total-wise, the game opened at 47.5 and has seen major movement per the NFL public betting percentages. The over/under is currently sitting at 50.5, but with 66% of the bets and 72% of the money now on the under, we could see the number dip back down.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Baltimore’s Offense Goes Hollywood

The Ravens enter play with the fourth shortest Super Bowl odds, while Lamar Jackson boasts the second shortest MVP odds. Jackson is largely responsible for the Ravens number one ranked offense, which produces 430 yards per game.

Lamar leads the NFL with a 117.3 passer rating, and is second in passing touchdowns with 25. He’s also chipped in 584 yards on the ground and two rushing TD, and boasts a spectacular resume on Monday Night Football.

Jared Goff has a 112.1 Passer Rating this season.

Lamar Jackson is at an insane 117.3.

… no one else even has 107. pic.twitter.com/iFETi9Luk0

— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) November 21, 2024

Jackson is 6-2 all-time on MNF, with 20 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. He and counterpart Justin Herbert lead the NFL in TD-to-INT ratio, and their play is a big part why we’re looking to back the over in this matchup – more on that later.

As if Jackson wasn’t difficult enough to prepare for, the Chargers must also get set to face Derrick Henry. The league’s leading rusher has scored in every game this season, becoming just the fourth player in NFL history to find the end zone in each of his teams first 11 contests.

The reason we’re not all-in on the Ravens to cover in this spot, is the play of their defense. Baltimore is allowing 25 points per game, and the most passing yards of any team in football. They rank below league average in coverage and pressure rate, while ranking 30th in opposing QB production.

Herbert Leads a Suddenly Potent Attack

That’s music to Herbert’s ears, who’s been playing some of the best ball of his career. He’s gone 246 attempts without an interception, and has accounted for 8 TD in his last four games – all victories.

Despite playing without top tier wide receiver, Herbert is still producing plenty of explosive plays. He has the most yards (695), completions (22) and TD (7) on throws of at least 20+ yards downfield.

Here’s a list of every NFL QB to have a 90+ Passer Rating in every game this season:

– Justin Herbert.

End of list. pic.twitter.com/uaBS3gwsCq

— Ryan DePaul (@RyanDePaul) November 22, 2024

After struggling to score early in the season, LA’s offense has had no issues lately. They’re averaging 28 points per game during their winning streak, and should be able to punch back versus the Ravens in a potential shootout.

The reason to shy away from the over would be the Chargers defense, but Joe Burrow proved last week they can be beaten in the secondary. LA coughed up 3 TD passes and 27 points to the Bengals, and it would have been more if not for multiple missed kicks.

The Chargers enter play as the number one scoring defense, but it’s a bit misleading. They’ve faced only one top-11 passer this season, and that was Burrow who torched them for 356 yards.

Ravens vs Chargers Prediction

Another reason to expect LA to find offensive success is a key absence for Baltimore’s D. Defensive captain and signal caller Roquan Smith has missed practice all week, and seems unlikely to play.

This game also marks another chapter in the Harbaugh Bowl, and while those contests are typically low scoring, both of these teams are going to have trouble getting stops.

The over is 9-2 in Ravens outings this season, including 1-0 indoors. LA meanwhile, has seen back-to-back games soar over the total by an average of 8.5 points per contest.

Ravens vs Chargers Pick: Over 50.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The post Ravens vs Chargers Odds, Picks and Prediction for Monday Night Football (Week 12) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The stakes are sky-high on Saturday for both #5 Indiana and #2 Ohio State. The undefeated Hoosiers can clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game with a win over the Buckeyes, while OSU needs a victory to keep its conference title hopes alive.

By this late in the week, the spread and total markets are ultra-efficient, but there’s still value to be found in the college football player props. That’s where our attention is focused below, so keep reading for the best Indiana vs Ohio State player props to bet for this Big Ten showdown.

Indiana vs Ohio State Player Props

The Buckeyes sport an implied team total of 32.5, but don’t expect the bulk of the points to come from Will Howard’s arm. Howard has a passing yards prop of 245.5 yards, 20 yards more than Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke. We’re looking to fade Howard in this matchup, as the Hoosiers have the talent to make him very uncomfortable.

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Odds as of Nov. 22 at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code before making a bet on any College Football game this week.

Indiana vs Ohio State Prop #1: Will Howard Under 245.5 Passing Yards

Ohio State is the current favorite in the National Championship odds, and they are heavy chalk in this contest. Oddsmakers are expecting a Buckeyes blowout, which would naturally lend itself to a more run-heavy script when playing from ahead.

But even if the game is closer than most project, Howard is not set up for success. The Hoosiers boast the fourth-highest-graded pass rush per Pro Football Focus, and feature a top-14 coverage unit.

Howard has struggled under pressure this season, and his production drops off a cliff when moved off his spot. His completion percentage on throws 10+ yards downfield in those situations is just 59%, while his average yards per attempt is only 6.7 yards.

Will Howard:

pick six
missed deep ball TD
fumble for a touchback

Unbelievable.

— The Silver Bulletin (@tSilverBulletin) November 2, 2024

He’s failed to reach 250 passing yards in three of his last four outings, despite producing completions of at least 32 yards in three of those games. Explosive plays are tough to come by versus Indiana, who give up the sixth-fewest in the country.

• Pick: Will Howard Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Indiana vs Ohio State Prop #2: Justice Ellison Over 38.5 Rushing Yards

On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers best chance of staying competitive is to attack on the ground. Indiana deploys a heavy inside zone running scheme, exactly the type of rushing attack OSU struggles against.

The Buckeyes defense ranks 64th in line yards and 76th in stuff rate, and sees its success rate drop by nearly 10% versus inside zone runs as opposed to outside zone runs.

HOOSIERS ARE ON FIRE

Justice Ellison takes it 31 yards for ANOTHER @IndianaFootball TD pic.twitter.com/I99j7u3Fuj

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 19, 2024

The Hoosiers have two quality backs in Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton, but this looks like an Ellison spot. He averages 5.7 yards per carry, including 3.8 yards after initial contact.

• Pick: Justice Ellison Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Indiana vs Ohio State Touchdown Props

Switching to the touchdown props market, where the Buckeyes Jeremiah Smith and Quinshon Judkins have the shortest odds to find the end zone. Judkins, in particular, is of interest, as he’s taken control of Ohio State’s backfield.

Indiana vs Ohio State Prop #3: Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD

Judkins has earned 14 more carries than backfield partner TreVeyon Smith over the last five games, scoring twice last time out.

The Hoosiers have the best rushing defense in the nation per the numbers, however, they’ve yet to face a top-70 rushing attack. Judkins averages 6.0 yards per carry, and given the troubles we expect Howard to face as outlined earlier, don’t be surprised if Ohio State’s lead back gets a heavy workload.

• Pick: Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD (-140 at BetMGM)

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The biggest game on the Week 13 college football slate features undefeated Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) visiting one-loss Ohio State (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten). Online sportsbooks don’t expect the Hoosiers perfect season to continue, pegging the Buckeyes as massive home chalk in the latest college football odds.

Ohio State vs Indiana Odds

Ohio State is favored by 11.5-points in a game with a total of 51.5. This contest opened Buckeyes -12.5, but early Indiana money drove the line down. As of Monday morning, the Hoosiers love hasn’t stopped per the college football public betting splits. Indiana is currently drawing 67% of the spread tickets, and 64% of the handle. 

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Kickoff for this Big Ten showdown is set for Noon ET at Ohio Stadium, in Columbus, OH, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.

Explaining the Lopsided Spread

You may be wondering why a perfect 10-0 team is getting so many points in this situation. It’s certainly not a knock on the Hoosiers play on the field, because they’ve been utterly dominant in nearly every game they’ve played.

Indiana leads the nation in point differential (301) and has racked up nine wins of at least 14 points. They rank number one in points per play and red zone efficiency, and third in points per outing.

BSB Advanced Stat Preview: Indiana at Ohio State

Something not included: Unadjusted for opponent, Ohio State and Indiana are 1 and 2 in Net EPA/play nationally.

This game will be fun. pic.twitter.com/fq0V3JHge4

— taylor from bite-sized bison (@ByTaylorL) November 18, 2024

Defensively, the metrics are elite as well. The Hoosiers are top-10 in scoring defense and yards allowed, and second in yards per carry. The issue is the opposition they’ve faced. Indiana enters Week 13 ranked 100th in strength of schedule, with their average opponent posting a winning percentage of just 49.4%.

Also working against them, is their performance the last time we saw them. Back in Week 11, they played their only one-score game of the season, squeaking out a win over Michigan. They struggled offensively in the second half, racking up a meager 17 net yards on 24 plays. Longshot Heisman Trophy odds contender Kurtis Rourke was picked off in the red zone, and the IU offensive line allowed four sacks.

Buckeyes Are Battle Tested

There’s no strength of schedule concerns for Ohio State. The Buckeyes lone loss was by a single point to #1 Oregon, and it’s considered the best defeat in the country. Ohio State won and covered on the road against a previously undefeated and top-10 Penn State team. Aside from an underwhelming victory over Nebraska, the Buckeyes have dominated their other contests.

They’ve held each of their last four opponents under 18 points and 275 yards, while the Ducks are the only team to eclipse 20 points against them. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring defense, and rank second in total yards allowed.

Offensively, they’re top-10 in nearly every metric, but do have offensive line issue, especially against the blitz. They rank 91st in sack rate when the heat is on, posting just a 7.2% big play rate under duress.

Ohio State needs to win out to ensure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, while ESPN FPI gives them a 95% chance to be on the final 12 standing in the College Football Playoff odds.

Ohio State vs Indiana Early Prediction

Despite the discrepancy in strength of schedule, the market believes there’s value on Indiana +11.5. The Hoosiers have handled nearly everyone on their schedule convincingly, and the lacklustre effort versus Michigan can be partly attributed to injuries to Rourke and some other key players.

Those injuries have had an extra week to heal thanks to a much needed bye in Week 12. Indiana’s offense gets all the headlines, but their defense should be able to keep them in this game. They rank fourth in epa per play on that side of the ball, and yield the sixth fewest explosive plays.

Ohio State meanwhile, has been mortal against the spread, posting just a 5-5 ATS mark. They played one-score games against both ranked opponents they faced, and this game should finish inside 10 points, let alone 11.5.

This spread is likely to continue moving in the Hoosiers favor, so grab the +11.5 now before it crosses a key number.

• Pick: Indiana +11.5 (-110)

The post Ohio State vs Indiana Odds, Line & Early Prediction – CFB Week 13 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

On paper, the battle of Texas isn’t shaping up to be much of a battle at all. The Texans (6-4, 2-3 away) are running away with the AFC South heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with a Dallas Cowboys (3-6, 0-4 home) squad that is completely broken. CJ Stroud and company are sizeable road favorites in the latest football betting lines as they look to hand Dallas a fifth straight loss.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Odds

Houston is currently favored by 7 points, in a contest with a total of 42. Bettors clearly don’t feel like this line is high enough, as the Texans are dominating the spread wagers so far. 74% of the tickets are on Houston -7, as is 78% of the spread handle. 

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Total-wise, we’re seeing similar lopsided action per the NFL public betting percentages: 78% of the over/under bets are on over 42, as is 55% of the total money wagered.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

A Get Back on Track Spot for the Texans

The lopsided spread line is more a reflection of how bad the Cowboys look rather than impressive Houston has been. The Texans have dropped back-to-back decisions, and three of their last four overall.

They haven’t exceeded 23 points in any of those outings, and have fallen to 30-1 in the Super Bowl odds. Stroud meanwhile, has thrown as many interceptions (2) as touchdowns (2) during that span.

The Texans check in as the league’s 17th highest scoring offense, down four spots from a year ago. Good news is on the way however, as star receiver Nico Collins is slated to make his return.

Nico Collins has more receiving yards than Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, & Amon-Ra St. Brown this season.

He’s played in just 5/10 games… pic.twitter.com/TACJRCbThm

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 14, 2024

Collins has been out since Week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was leading the league in receiving when he went down, and since then Houston has also lost their second best pass catching option in Stefon Diggs.

With a limited receiving corps, the Texans have deployed a run heavy approach, leaning on Joe Mixon. The former Bengal is averaging the third most rushing pards per game in the NFL (98.3), and has found the endzone eight times already.

The Cowboys enter play allowing the second most rushing yards per game (152), while ranking 30th in run stop win rate. Collins’ return will draw plenty of extra attention from Dallas’ defense, potentially making Mixon’s matchup even more favorable.

If there’s an area of concern for Houston, it’s along the offensive line. The Texans rank 20th in pass block win rate, coughing up 12 sacks in their last two outings alone.

For all of their flaws, the Cowboys can still generate pressure, even more so with Micah Parsons in the lineup. Parsons returned last week from injury, and helped Dallas rack up five sacks in a 34-6 loss to Philly.

Oh What a Rush

Unfortunately, those sacks didn’t lead to any success as the Cowboys offense was dreadful. Cooper Rush averaged 1.96 yards per attempt versus the Eagles, and was benched in the fourth quarter.

Cooper Rush vs Eagles

He’ll be back under center on Monday, at least to start, as the Cowboys look to do something they haven’t done since Week 3 at home: score a touchdown.

Dallas has only four touchdowns in 45 offensive possessions at Jerry’s World, and have gone 24 straight possessions without a TD in home losses to the Lions and Eagles. They’re converting just 35.9% of their third downs this season, and 41.7% of their red zone trips into touchdowns.

Dak Prescott, Rush and Trey Lance have combined for a total QBR of 34.3, which is higher than only Deshaun Watson and Will Levis among starting quarterbacks.

Texans vs Cowboys Prediction

Prescott is done for the season, so unless Rush or Lance morph into a reliable option, the Cowboys season is sunk. Life won’t get any easier this week against the Texans defense, which has forced a league-high 15 turnovers since Week 6.

Dallas is winless in four home games so far, losing three times by at least 25 points. They haven’t lost five straight at home since 2015, but that’s about to change.

The Cowboys are a 0-4 against the spread in their last four outings, and boast the second lowest cover rate in the NFL (22.2%).

Texans vs Cowboys Picks:

• Texans -7 (-110) at BetMGM
• Under 42 (-110) at BetMGM

The post Texans vs Cowboys Prediction, Picks and Odds for Monday Night Football (Week 11) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

#17 Colorado (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) is already Bowl eligible, but Coach Prime and Co. have much greater aspirations for this year’s squad. The Buffaloes control their own destiny when it comes to the College Football Playoff, and will wind up as one of the final 12 should they win out and claim the Big 12 title.

Colorado has a greater than 73% chance to win each of its final three regular season games according to advanced projections, starting on Saturday against Utah (4-5, 1-5 Big 12). The Buffaloes are big home favorites per the latest College Football odds, as they chase their sixth conference win of the year.

Colorado vs Utah Odds

Colorado is currently favored by 10.5 points, in a contest with a total of 45.5. Both sides of the spread are drawing plenty of action, with the Buffaloes garnering slightly more attention in terms of tickets (57%) and handle (57%).

Total-wise, we have a pros vs joes divide according to the College Football public betting trends. Under 45.5 is garnering only 24% of the wagers, but those bets are accounting for 46% of the total handle.

Kickoff is scheduled for Noon ET at Folsom Field, in Boulder, CO, with Fox providing the broadcast coverage.

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Let’s Go Buffaloes

Colorado’s stock in the College Football Playoff odds is on the rise thanks to strong play on both sides of the ball. The defense is drastically improved from a year ago, while the offense is one of the most potent in the country.

Shadeur Sanders has put himself in the number one overall pick conversation for next year’s NFL Draft by putting up video game numbers. Sanders has thrown for 2,882 yards and 24 TD, against only 6 picks. He ranks top-10 in passing yards, yards per attempt and completion percentage, and has the luxury of throwing to a very skilled receiving corps.

Shedeur Sanders has a 139.0 passer rating when targeting Travis Hunter at WR.

158.3 is a perfect passer rating.

Opposing QBs have a 43.0 passer rating when targeting Travis Hunter at CB.

39.6 is the rating you get for throwing every pass into the dirt. pic.twitter.com/O4iG8ZVHTc

— Scott Procter (@ScottProcter_) November 13, 2024

That group is led by two-way star Travis Hunter, the frontrunner in the Heisman Trophy odds. Hunter is an elite wide receiver and cornerback, boasting 69 catches, 856 yards and 9 TD on one side of the ball, while adding two interceptions, a forced fumble and seven pass break-ups on the other.

Last Saturday’s victory over Texas Tech exemplified his skills and only strengthened his player of the year case. Hunter hauled in 9 receptions for 99 yards and a score, while also playing 53 defensive snaps and only being challenged on one pass attempt.

The Buffaloes defense is yielding 22.7 points per game, down from 34.8 ppg a season ago. They’re racking up three-plus sacks per outing, while yielding just 6.7 yards per pass. As we’ll discuss, the Utes offense doesn’t project to put up much of a fight, as they’re down to their fourth-string QB.

Utah Stuck in a Lost Season

Injuries have completely derailed Utah’s 2024 campaign. The preseason conference favorite lost starting QB Cam Rising and multiple pass catchers early on, and most recently backup quarterbacks Sam Huard and Brandon Rose. That means true freshman Issac Wilson will be under center, and his results have not been pretty.

Wilson is completing 58% of his passes for an average of less than 7.0 yards per throw. He’s tossed just as many interceptions (8) as touchdowns (8), while Utah hasn’t scored more than 14 points in any of his last three outings.

The Utes offense ranks 114th in points per drive and 112th in overall success rate. If they’re going to keep it close, it will be up to the defense to shut down Colorado, as there’s no ceiling with Wilson on the other side of the ball.

Colorado vs Utah Prediction

Utah’s defense is strong once again in 2024, ranking first in points allowed in the Big 12. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into positive results. They’ve lost five straight conference games, including a 22-21 heartbreaker last week to #6 BYU in a rivalry showdown.

Yes, four of those losses were by one possession, but none of those opponents boast the same kind of firepower as the Buffaloes. The Utes reached 20 points in only one of those outings, and it’s not far fetched to envision them letting down this week, after the crushing defeat last Saturday.

Colorado’s Last 5 Games

Colorado on the other hand, has been a cash cow for spread bettors. They’ve covered seven straight, including four as a favorite. Five of those games were double-digit victories, including three wins by 19+ points.

The Buffaloes have incentive, talent and form on their side. Back Coach Prime and Co. yet again to cover at home.

• Pick: Colorado -10.5 (-110)

The post Colorado vs Utah Prediction, Pick & Betting Line – Big Noon Kickoff appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two programs going in completely different directions clash on Wednesday, as winless Kent State (0-9, 0-5 MAC) visits streaking Miami (OH) (5-4, 4-1 MAC) in MACtion.

The RedHawks have reeled off four straight victories and online sportsbooks expect their winning streak to continue in convincing fashion per the latest College Football odds.

Kent State vs Miami (OH) Odds

Miami is currently favored by 30.5 points, in a game with a total of 45.5. That spread is up half a point since its opener, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from backing the RedHawks. 90% of the money is currently on Miami, and that handle is coming from only 36% of the ATS tickets according to the College Football public betting trends.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7 pm ET from Yager Stadium, in Oxford, OH, with ESPNU providing the broadcast coverage.

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Kent State’s QB Question Mark

The Golden Flashes were always going to be a massive underdog in this matchup, but their QB situation has amplified the issue. Starter Tommy Ulatowski sat out last week’s 41-0 loss to Ohio for an unspecified reason. As of Tuesday afternoon, there’s no update on Ulatowski’s status, all we know is that head coach Kenni Burns said it’s Ulatowski’s job once he’s ready to go.

In his absence, Kent State turned to true freshman Ruel Tomlinson versus the Bobcats, and the results weren’t pretty. Tomlinson completed only 8 of 16 throws for 62 yards, and was sacked five times. He also tossed an interception, and led the team to only seven first downs.

The Golden Flashes’ running game also stalled, producing a dismal 52 yards on 24 attempts. Kent State managed only 114 yards of offense, which shockingly is just their third-lowest output of the season.

Kent State Stats – Ulatowski Starting vs Not Starting

If you think that’s bad, it gets worse. They were shut out for the third time in 2024 and were held without a touchdown for the fourth game. This all ties back to the quarterback situation. In Ulatowski’s four starts this season, the Golden Flashes have yet to be blanked and average 24 points per outing. He’s thrown for 940 yards and 11 TD, against six interceptions.

In the five games he didn’t start, Kent State is averaging a pathetic 8.2 points per outing, and have been outscored 246 to 41.

Miami Set Up for Success on Both Sides

The defensive side of the ball is just as bleak for the Golden Flashes. They coughed up 407 yards to Ohio, including 258 yards on the ground. Kent State ranks dead last in the MAC in yards, rushing yards allowed, and scoring defense. They’re second last in passing yards allowed, and yield 46 points per game, seven more than the next worst defense.

That’s music to Miami’s ears, who are not an especially potent offense. The RedHawks average only 23 points per outing and 352 yards of offense. They rank middle of the pack in both rushing and passing offense, but will likely find success no matter how they attack the Golden Flashes.

4 in a row.
Red-Bird Rivalry.
MACtion W.
Successful Tuesday. #RiseUpRedHawks | pic.twitter.com/KruUiKxR9s

— Miami Football (@MiamiOHFootball) November 6, 2024

Miami’s calling card is their defense. It’s not strong enough to make them a College Football Playoff odds contender, but it does have them in position to become Bowl Game eligible with one more victory.

Simply put, they will absolutely dominate in this matchup if Ulatowski sits. The RedHawks surrender less than 200 passing yards and just 20 points per game. They’re limiting enemy rushing attacks to 4.1 yards per carry, while forcing the second-most turnovers in the conference.

Kent State vs Miami (OH) Prediction

Until we get clarity on Ulatowski, we cannot confidently place a wager on this contest. If he gets the green light, taking the points with Kent State is an easy decision. Ulatowski has given the offense a ceiling when he’s been in there, and has kept the team in games.

If he sits, it’s defensible to lay the points with Miami, but the under becomes the more prudent play. The Golden Flashes have been as anemic on offense as any program in the country without Ulatowski, and Tomlinson simply isn’t ready for primetime.

The RedHawks defense is arguably the best in the MAC, while their offense isn’t strong enough to push this game over the total on their own. They’ll undoubtedly put up more points than their season average, but it’s hard to imagine them pushing 40+ points like previous Kent State opponents.

• Pick: Kent State +30.5 (-110) if Ulatowski starts. Under 45.5 (-110) if Ulatowski sits.

The post Kent State vs Miami (OH) Prediction, Preview & Odds for Wednesday MACtion appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Georgia’s postseason hopes are on the line Saturday when they host Tennessee under the primetime lights. The Bulldogs are fresh off a second conference loss week at the hands of Ole Miss, and one more slip-up will eliminate them from the College Football Playoff conversation.

Online sportsbooks don’t believe there’s much chance of that happening this week, as they’ve pegged Georgia as big home chalk in the college football odds.

Tennessee vs Georgia Odds

The Bulldogs opened up as 8.5-point favorites, with a total of 53.5. Both of those numbers have seen movement since lines were released, as Georgia is now favored by 10, and the total has plummeted to 48.5.

Even at the current number, spread bettors are all over the Bulldogs. Georgia is currently drawing 64% of the tickets and 88% of the handle per the college football public betting splits. Kickoff for this massive SEC tilt is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET at Sanford Stadium, in Athens, GA, with ABC and ESPN+ providing the coverage.

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Odds as of November 11 (2 pm ET) at Caesars Sportsbooks. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before betting on NCAAF Week 12.

Will Nico Be Ready to Go?

A big reason bettors are fading the Vols is the question surrounding Nico Iamaleava’s health. Tennessee’s starting QB left last Saturday’s win over Mississippi State after three snaps in the third quarter and did not return. He’s reportedly dealing with an upper-body injury, but the Vols did get some good news on Monday.

Josh Heupel on Nico Iamaleava: He was with us today and had a good day. Feel like he'll be in great shape for Saturday.

— GoVols247 (@GoVols247) November 11, 2024

Head coach Josh Heupel said Iamaleava had a good day of practice, and should be ready for Saturday night. He refrained from guaranteeing his status, however, and warned the media to monitor the injury report.

Iamleava is in the midst of a fantastic redshirt freshman season. He’s thrown for 1,879 yards and 11 TDs, while also rushing for another 300 yards.

If Imaleava can’t go, Gaston Moore will take the reigns, but his experience is limited. He’s thrown only 42 passes at the collegiate level, with more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2).

Georgia Banged Up as Well

The Bulldogs are dealing with injuries of their own. Starting RB Trevor Etienne failed to finish his second consecutive game last week due to a rib injury. The junior running back managed only 24 yards versus Ole Miss, while Georgia rushed for a season-low 59 yards in a losing effort.

On the bright side, they did get guard Tate Ratledge back last week, and hopefully, he can help stabilize a shaky offensive line.

Bulldogs Look Broken

QB Carson Beck was sacked five more times in the loss to the Rebels, bringing his season-long total to 14. He also threw another interception, giving him seven picks in his last three outings. The Georgia receivers didn’t help by dropping three more passes, and now lead the nation with 29 drops. Beck has thrown for less than 200 yards twice in his last three outings, with only 2 total touchdown passes.

On the other side of the ball, the defense has also been disappointing. Last week’s 28-10 loss was the most lopsided defeat for the Bulldogs since the 2019 SEC Championship Game. They’ve yielded at least 28 points in three of their last six games, and have fallen to 19th nationwide in scoring defense.

Tennessee vs Georgia Prediction

Needless to say, the air of invincibility that has accompanied Georgia over the last three years is gone. They look like a fringe contender at best in the College Football Playoff odds, and would be a much smaller favorite on Saturday if Iamleava was healthy.

And therein lies the dilemma. If you believe Heupel that Iamleava will likely suit up, then bet the Vols immediately. Tennessee is neck and neck with the Bulldogs in terms of SP+ rankings, and boasts the superior defense.

Tennessee vs Georgia SP+ Rankings

If Iamleava plays, this game will be a tightly contested affair, but if he’s out, you won’t have much confidence riding with a Moore-led offense. Which brings us to the total. At this point, it looks like the safest bet. Yes, the under has been hit hard already, but neither one of these teams is a true juggernaut. Even with Iamleava, Tennessee has only reached 30 points once in conference play.

Georgia, meanwhile, has been held to 14 points or less twice already in 2024, and the Vols defense will be the best unit they’ll face all season.

• Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)

The post Tennessee vs Georgia Early Prediction, Odds & Spread – CFB Week 12 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Fresh off three straight victories, the LA Rams (4-4) host the struggling Miami Dolphins (2-7) on Monday Night Football. Online sportsbooks expect the Rams’ winning streak to continue, pegging them as 1.5-point home chalk in the latest NFL odds.

Miami Dolphins vs LA Rams Odds

LA is also a -125 moneyline favorite in a game with a total of 48.5. This spread has fluctuated between -1 and -2.5 all week, but now appears to have settled at the current number. As it stands, 54% of the spread tickets and 56% of the handle is backing the Rams. 

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Total-wise, the over/under is actually down tw0 points from its opener per the NFL public betting percentages, which presents an interesting betting opportunity – more on that later.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from SoFi Stadium, in Inglewood, CA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Dolphins vs Rams Injury Report

One reason bettors may be pessimistic on this total going over is the health of Tyreek Hill. Miami’s star receiver popped up on the injury report with a wrist injury that reportedly dates back to August. Hill is said to have aggravated his wrist last week, and now his status is reportedly up in the air. As we’ll discuss, that would be extremely unfortunate, because the Rams secondary has been eviscerated by wide receivers this season.

The Rams meanwhile, are set to receive a gigantic boost to their offensive line. Interior starters Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson are set to return against Miami, as is tackle Joe Noteboom. All three went down in LA’s season opener, and their absence has been enormous.

The Rams offensive line ranks 31st in pass blocking per Pro Football Focus, putting Matthew Stafford in the line of fire all season. Stafford has been pressured on 32% of his drop backs so far, resulting in a single TD pass and 5 interceptions on those snaps.

Rams Offense on a Roll

Despite the heat constantly being in his face, Stafford has kept LA in games with some top level quarterback play. He finally got Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back two weeks ago, and the offense took flight. They put up 30 and 26 points respectively in those contests, and looked like a legitimate Super Bowl odds dark horse. They raised their offensive DVOA ranking from 21st to 11th, and a healthy offensive line is only going to make the Rams more dangerous.

When Matthew Stafford gets into Canton, this will be on the highlight tape. THIS THROW IS UNREAL & ITS AN OVERTIME GAME WINNER ON THE ROAD pic.twitter.com/hml2kh1jkj

— Dalton Feely (@dfeely14) November 4, 2024

LA has the most passing yards and completions when targeting wide receivers this season, but they’re not a one-trick pony. Kyren Williams has been one of the most productive running backs in football, scoring 10 total touchdowns in eight games. Miami has been a goldmine for opposing running backs this season, surrendering the second most touchdowns to that position entering Week 10.

Dolphins Can Punch Back With or Without Hill

On the other side of the ball, we can expect Miami to find success through the air. The Dolphins offense was an absolute train wreck while Tua Tagovailoa was injured, but since he’s returned they’ve looked sharp. Their offense ranks second in the NFL over the last two weeks in expected points added, and have a very favorable matchup on Monday.

The Rams defense ranks 26th in completion rate against wide receiver targets 10+ yards down field, and 29th in yards per pass attempt. If we extrapolate that sample size even wider, LA’s defense looks worse. On throws 20+ yards downfield, they’ve allowed the third highest completion rate, and the most touchdowns to enemy wideouts.

Rams Defense vs 20+ Yard Throws to Wide Receivers

There’s few players as explosive as Hill on those types of targets, but even if he sits, Miami’s other speedster Jaylen Waddle can take advantage. Waddle found the end zone last week for the first time this season, and is just two years removed from averaging 18.1 yards per reception.

Dolphins vs Rams Prediction

The Dolphins can also find explosive plays in the run game with De’Von Achane. The second-year back has over 100 total yards in back-to-back games, to go along with three touchdowns.

Bottom line, both offenses are in a fantastic position to succeed, which brings the over into play. We’re already getting a discount on the opening line, and the trends support that side as well. Miami is 2-1 to the over in games Tagovailoa has started and finished, and 8-3 in Tua’s last 11 starts as a road ‘ dog.

Dolphins vs Rams Pick: Over 48.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The post Dolphins vs Rams Odds, Prediction and Picks for Monday Night Football (Week 10) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

UNLV (6-2, 2-1 MWC) could have easily been undefeated heading into Week 11. Their two losses are by a combined 9 points, and both were the result of blown 4th quarter leads.

The Rebels playoff dreams may be dead, but there’s still plenty left to play for down the stretch. They’re still in contention for a conference championship and a premium Bowl Game appearance. Online sportsbooks believe they’ll improve their stock after a visit to Hawaii (4-5, 2-2 MWC) on Saturday, as they’ve pegged UNLV as massive road chalk in the College Football odds.

UNLV vs Hawaii Odds

The Rebels are 12.5-point favorites, in a contest with a total of 50.5. UNLV actually opened at -14, but early Rainbow Warriors money drove the line down. The Hawaii love hasn’t stopped according to the College Football public betting trends, as they’re currently drawing 78% of the spread wagers and 86% of the ATS handle.

Kickoff for this Mountain West clash is set for 9 pm ET from Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii, with CBSSN providing the broadcast coverage.

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Can Hawaii Contain the Rebels Rushing Attack?

Roughly this time a month again, the Rebels were ranked inside the top-25 for the first time in program history. They were a longshot College Football Playoff odds contender, and on pace for the best season in school history. Losses to Kyle McCord and Syracuse, as well as #12 Boise State squashed those hopes, but the arrow is still pointing up for UNLV.

Offense has been the key to the Rebels’ success, specifically their run game. UNLV is the nation’s 16th highest-scoring offense, and boast a top-15 rushing attack.

DEEP SHOT TO THE END ZONE. @unlvfootball fights back

CBS Sports Network pic.twitter.com/YgthCQ5oQ9

— CBS Sports College Football (@CBSSportsCFB) October 26, 2024

Dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams is the team’s leading rusher and TD producer, while a trio of backs have combined for nearly 900 yards. The Rebels average 206 rushing yards per contest, at 5.1 yards per carry, running the ball on 64% of their snaps.

A potent run game is critical, because the passing attack leaves a lot to be desired. Williams has a career 62% completion rate, and absorbs a ton of sacks. He’s been taken down 13 times already in four starts, including six times last time out versus Boise State.

The run game will be even more important this week due to the strength of Hawaii’s rush defense. The Rainbow Warriors are limiting enemy backfields to only 3.9 yards per attempt, and 128 rushing yards per game.

How about that Warrior defense?!

19 rush yds allowed
4 sacks
10 TFLs #BRADDAHHOOD x #GoBows pic.twitter.com/xoQvIQFteR

— Hawaii Football (@HawaiiFootball) November 3, 2024

Hawaii checks in as the conference’s top scoring defense, limiting opponents to 22 points per game. They’ve been especially strong at home on the island, holding enemy offenses to an average of 15 points per contest this season.

Rebels Defense Fierce as Well

On the other side of the ball, Hawaii won’t find much traction on the ground either. UNLV’s rush defense is even more stout than the Rainbow Warriors’, yielding only 3.6 yards per carry.

That will put more pressure on the arm of QB Brayden Schager, who’s completing less than 60% of his throws. The senior pivot has a strong track record against the Rebels, throwing for 6 TD in two career starts, but will likely be without his number one weapon.

Opening drive tuddy @BraydenSchager @PofeleAshlock #BRADDAHHOOD x #GoBows pic.twitter.com/7M8XWhBTFT

— Hawaii Football (@HawaiiFootball) November 2, 2024

Wide Receiver Pofele Ashlock was knocked out of last week’s game versus Fresno State with a concussion and is doubtful for Saturday. He leads the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns, and has shown fantastic chemistry with Schager over his two seasons.

UNLV has faced a ton of pass volume thanks to being well ahead in so many of their matchups, but have done well on a down-to-down basis. They’re holding opposing quarterbacks to a 60% completion rate and 6.5 yards per completion. The Rebels also boast a 6.56% sack rate, and that pressure should get home against Schager who’s already been taken down 30 times.

UNLV vs Hawaii Prediction

Given the amount of money coming in on the Rainbow Warriors, we could easily see this spread continue to move in their direction. At +14, Hawaii seems like an obvious play, but as it trickles down, we lose more and more value.

Hawaii Under Trends

Which brings us to the total. The Rainbow Warriors’ defense matches up well against UNLV, and the absence of Ashlock is a real blow to the Hawaii offense. The Rainbow Warriors are accustom to playing low-scoring games thanks to their defense, and have been a cash cow for under bettors.

Hawaii is 7-2 to the under this season. UNLV is 4-4, but is much more likely to underwhelm offensively on the road. The Rebels road games are 3-1 to the under so far, and this matchup should fall short of the total as well.

• Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)

The post UNLV vs Hawaii Prediction, Odds & Spread (Saturday, Nov. 9) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.