New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Predictions, Best Odds & Betting Splits (Oct 25)

• Game 1 of the 2024 World Series goes on Friday with Gerrit Cole and the Yankees facing Jack Flaherty and the Dodgers
• Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees opposite Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers
• See the Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 predictions, picks, and best odds on Oct 25

The 2024 World Series gets underway on Friday night in LA when the New York Yankees (94-68, 50-31 away) visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, 52-29 home) at Chavez Ravine at 5:08 pm PT/8:08 pm ET. Despite New York starting ace Gerrit Cole, Los Angeles is priced as a slight favorite in the Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 odds.

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Predictions

• LA Dodgers moneyline (-125) at BetMGM
• Over 8.5 runs (-115) at ESPN Bet
  

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If Cole was pitching like the 2023 Cy Young-winner he was last season, the odds for this game would likely be reversed. But he’s not. After a solid but not spectacular injury-shortened regular season (3.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), Cole has been supremely mediocre in the postseason. While his ERA looks impressive (3.31), he has a 1.53 WHIP and has only recorded 12 strikeouts in 16.1 innings over three starts. His xFIP is a bloated 5.39.

Flaherty hasn’t been any better. He has an ugly 7.04 ERA and 5.86 xFIP in 15.1 postseason innings to date. His K% in the playoffs is just 11.9%, down from a career-best-tying 29.9% in the regular season.

Flaherty also has ugly numbers against this group of Yankee hitters. In 54 ABs, they have a .304 average, .944 OPS, and three homers against the 6’4 righty. Anthony Rizzo has all three long balls.

The main reason I’m siding with the Dodgers in Game 1 is the absolute tear their lineup went on in the NLCS. Yes, the four-day layoff could certainly disrupt their rhythm but Shohei Ohtani and company have scored at least six runs in four straight games.

They averaged 7.6 runs per game against the Mets and are getting contributions from up and down the lineup. If Ohtani and Mookie Betts don’t get you at the top of the order, Max Muncy and Kike Hernandez have been just as dangerous further down the lineup.

Best Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Odds

With nearly five whole days for bettors to get their money down, the Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 odds don’t have a lot of variety left. Almost every sportsbook has the moneyline at Yankees +110/Dodgers -130. The only exception is BetMGM, where the Yankees are +105 and the Dodgers are a slightly longer -125.

On the runline, BetMGM also has the best price on the Dodgers, listing LAD -1.5 at +165. ESPN Bet has the best odds on NYY +1.5, pricing the Yankees at -180 to keep the score within a run.

There is no variation at all in the run total. Every book currently has the over under at 8.5 (O -115/U -105).

NYY vs LAD Public-Betting Splits

Friday’s MLB public betting splits show the public heavily leaning to the Dodgers in Game 1. Los Angeles is getting 76% of moneyline handle on 75% of the wagers. The Dodgers are also getting 88% of runline handle to win by multiple runs.

The public also has a strong lean to the over in Game 1. So far, 74% of O/U handle is on over 8.5 runs. Five of LAD’s six games against the Mets in the NLCS went over 8.5, averaging 10.5 runs per game.

New York’s series with the Guardians was slightly lower scoring, averaging 9.8 runs over five games.